The East Runs Through UConn
With UConn's title defense entering it's finally games, the committee threw them their biggest tests
Welcome to a breakdown of the East region of this year’s NCAA bracket where I will give you a look into the one seed for the region, my favorite potential upset I’m eyeing, some issues I took with the committee and who I think is best poised to be a Cinderella.
If you’re interested in reading my thoughts on the Midwest region and Purdue, you and read about that here.
And click here if you’d like to read a breakdown on UNC and the West region!
The One Seed: UConn Huskies (31-3)
Your defending champion UConn Huskies are back and better than they were last year when they hoisted the trophy. The Huskies lost three players to the NBA Draft last season, and still got Tristen Newton to take the next step forward and turned Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Donovan Clingan into household names. While last year’s team had the star power with Jordan Hawkins, Andre Jackson and Alex Sanogo, this team is somehow even more efficient on offense, and even deeper as a whole.
As if it wasn’t already obvious, this team continued right where they left off in last season’s tournament as this season featured only eight games that were decided by single digits which UConn was still 7-1 in. So pretty much UConn either blew you out, ripped out heart out, or maybe you got lucky and your team was lights out from the three point line.
Now I could continue to throw out stats to show why UConn is the best of the world beater teams, has been on an all time heater the last two years plus, how the demoralizing defense both on the perimeter and in the paint to go with their All-American offense, and the most likely team to repeat since Florida in the mid-2000s. But I actually don’t believe this team will cut down the nets again this season.
I like Dan Hurley a lot. But it’s fair to begin asking if Coach Hurley did something to smite the selection committee because this is the second year in a row where it feels like the committee has gone out of their way to give UConn the hardest road possible. I felt it was unfair that the Huskies were a four seed despite how great all of their metrics were and paired them with a tough group; not that it mattered. I will discuss it further down but the committee doubled down and gave UConn a gauntlet that is unjust for a number one overall team.
So feel free to pick the Huskies all the way in your bracket; lord knows I would love to. But don’t be shocked if they turn out to be the first one seed eliminated this year because the committee paired them up with a buzzsaw in Auburn in the Sweet 16, or Iowa St or Illinois in the Regionals.
Favorite Upset
(10)Drake vs (7)Washington St
I know this isn’t much of an upset compared to Grand Canyon or Samford yesterday, but this part of the bracket is just so top heavy that I’m not confident in to much going on in terms of a round one upset. But I’ve also been very high on Drake all season long so this gives me opportunity to pound that drum one more time in the tournament.
Drake did rob us of the opportunity to get Indiana St and Robbie Avila in the tournament. But it’s not like the Bulldogs were some weak bid thief that racked off three straight wins, this is an experienced team that was picked at the top of the Missouri Valley from the get go. And while this team may not have been tested much in non-conference outside of a blowout win against Nevada, this is a team that is experienced and is just coming off a tournament berth last year where they gave Miami a scare. They returned arguably their best two players in Tucker DeVries and Darnell Brodie to this high scorer attack offense.
This is a team that is not new to this moment, and given the fact I’ve already had questions about the legitimacy of this year’s Pac-12 and that this will be the first tournament action for any of these Washington St players, I think this is a big opportunity for the Bulldogs to show some poise and get an upset here.
Seeding Gripes
I really take issue with everything about this region. Walking down the bracket, you have Florida Atlantic slated as an eight seed, which, I’m sure I share this feeling with most, is just incorrect. I root for the Owls but they completely sullied the early season wins against Texas A&M and Arizona with flat out horrible losses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast, and Temple. This is still the team that returned almost everybody from a Final Four run and could do it again but those losses should have them closer to Dayton to be honest.
Next, I’m upset that Auburn is slated as a four seed. It’s a minor difference as I had them as a three, but still the team dominated the SEC tournament and finished with a NET ranking of 5th. Conference championships and predictive metrics have to mean more than non-conference schedules. But to this committee, they don’t.
I also flat out hate the BYU/Duquesne 6/11 matchup as it was just pure laziness on the committee’s part. Due to the Mormon faith, BYU is generally unable to play on Sundays. BYU was ranked as the best five seed by this committee but the majority of the pools involving five seeds were centered around Friday/Sunday games. So rather than taking an extra 20 minutes to workshop things so that BYU would be a five and get a Thursday/Saturday pool while keeping the rest of the field compliant with tournament principles they said screw it and put the Cougars as a six seed.
I guess you could say they at least did BYU a favor giving them Duquesne, because the Dukes certainly don’t deserve a seed any higher than 12. Some have theorized, and there is some clues to this claim, that the committee was anticipating VCU winning the A-10 bid on Sunday afternoon and was prepared to slate them in this spot. But when Duquesne pulled the upset, they once again took the easy way out and gave the Dukes VCU’s spot despite Duquesne holding worst metrics than 12s like James Madison, McNeese, Grand Canyon and even 13 seed Samford.
Lastly, the treatment of Iowa St was abhorrent and felt personal to the Cyclones. Iowa St, last week was squarely on the two line in the bracketology world, but after a jaw dropping Big 12 tournament run that ended with a 28 point blowout of Houston. The win made the Cyclones champs in the toughest conference and put them Top 6 in most predictive metric. There was a good conversation being had that with the UNC loss to NC State, that Iowa St had done enough to earn the last one seed. But the bracket came out and the committee rated Iowa St 8th, the worst two seed and circled the Cyclones sub 300 non-conference schedule as the reason why. Non-conference schedule is okay if you want to get an idea of what teams have tested themselves or how they may perform, but it should not be the determining factor when you have a full season of excellence that you can look to for that team.
A terrible job by the committee in this region and truly a terrible job by them across the board.
9 Seed or Lower Most Likely to Make a Run
BYU Cougars (6 seed)
Yes I know, BYU is a six seed, but in the words of Drake “I turned the 6 upside it's a 9 now.” I just do not believe in any of the teams underneath BYU to make a run here. Like I already mentioned, this region is a monster at the top and I don’t foresee many double digit seeds win one, never mind two games here.
The streets have told me to watch out for the 13 seed Yale to upset Auburn due to the team being older and having length across the board to contend with the Tigers. But having seen Yale first hand face off against two Rhode Island teams, I’m just not buying it. The Bulldogs choked away an 18 point lead to the 12-20 URI Rams, and then need a 13-18 Brown team to choke away the Ivy league title in the last 30 seconds and give up a wide open layup at the buzzer. That’s not a team I’m afraid of.
I did consider taking Morehead St for a short while because of how well they defend. But this isn’t the Ohio Valley anymore, and I think Illinois had way too much muscle for them to handle between Terrence Shannon Jr, and Coleman Hawkins. So I’m going with the team that has been tested against muscle in the Big 12 all season, and has experience in limiting and beating Iowa St this very season; the BYU Cougars.