Chaos Brewing in the West Region
UNC secured the final one seed and could find themselves in a bracket turned upside down.
Continuing in our breakdown of each of the bracket regions, we go a little bit further out to the West before coming back to the other side of the country.
If you’re interested in reading about my thoughts on the other regions, you can find my thoughts about Purdue and the Midwest here. And separate articles on the East and South regions will be published tomorrow!
The One Seed: North Carolina (27-7)
UNC comes into this tournament as the “worst” one seed in the bracket and I’m not just saying that because there were three other one seeds that separated themselves so far from the rest of the pack. There was also a serious conversation happening Sunday in college basketball circles as to whether the fourth seed would be given to Tennessee, UNC, or Iowa St who had just blown Houston out the night before in the Big 12 finals. I personally felt that Iowa St was the most deserving of the nod given the cherry they had put on top of their resume Saturday evening. But despite having better metrics nearly across the board to UNC, the committee ruled Iowa St’s non-conference was too poor and the Tar Heels were giving the seed.
Now I understand I may be coming off as a hater or a skeptic of UNC, and I am to a degree. I believe the ACC has slowly been deteriorating the last few years and UNC’s 17 conference wins do not look as good in the year 2024 as they might have in 2019 when the conference earned three number one seeds.
But make no mistake, this is a dangerous Tar Heels team. After suffering from a National Championship Runner-up hangover last season, UNC came back with a star tandem in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, and added Power 5 transfers Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) into the equation. Thanks to those four and others, UNC drastically improved in their efficiency numbers on both ends where they are now in the “Have a good shot at a Title” range according to Kenpom ranking 24th on offense and a suffocating 6th on defense.
But the biggest thing I think that the Tar Heels have going for them is they happen to be in the most chaotic of the regions. There are some really good teams with Arizona, and Baylor, but honestly each of the top 11 seeds has had a whirlwind of a season where they have looked incredible one week but then completely lost a sea the next. If UNC can just ride the wave and take care of business they may make their second final four in three years.
Favorite Upset
(12)Grand Canyon over (5)Saint Mary’s
Folks who read my preview last season might remember me picking VCU to upset Saint Mary’s in the first round in another 12/5 upset. Well I fell flat on my face there but I’m running it back against the Gaels once more!
Whereas VCU is pretty much known across the college basketball landscape due to their consistence near the top of the Atlantic 10 and their magical 2011 Final Four run, Grand Canyon is a fresh team that has been building up to this moment.
The Antelope have only been a part of Division 1 for 11 years now but have built their program to the point where they are now in the tournament for the third time in four season. And after giving Iowa and Gonzaga scares as 15 and 14 seeds, this 29 win team is poised to be the last 12 seed to upset.
This is a team that is comprised of fourth and fifth year juniors and seniors that are battle tested and have actually went 2-0 against common opponents to Saint Mary’s defeating both the San Francisco Dons and the San Diego St Aztecs, whereas the Gaels were blown out by SDSU earlier in the year.
The Gaels are certainly improved from last season though and have a top 20 defense to go with the fifth slowest tempo in the country that will lull you to sleep. Low tempo mixed with good defense leave you little room for mistakes and less opportunities to recover. But Grand Canyon fortunately is not a team that is dependent on tempo and their efficiency numbers are just good enough where they are willing to go out and win a track meet or a rock fight.
Veteran leadership, ball control and coaching are certain needed for mid-major upsets, but star power is something that can put it over the top and GCU has that in Tyon Grant-Foster. The former Kansas Jayhawk and WAC player of the year averaged nearly 20 points and six rebounds this season and forced the issue constantly, accounting for nearly a third of the team’s free throws. But it’s not just his offense, Tyon’s 1.7 steals and 1.5 blocks helped the Antelope get out and run in transition.
Seeding Gripes
Just like with the Midwest, I have some gripes with what the committee did in this region as well.
I did not necessarily take issue with Michigan St making the field as I had them as one of my last four teams in the field. I acknowledged the difficulty in their schedule and saw the potential when they did actually perform. But losses need to make at some point and Michigan St had 14 of them. So to see the committee not even send this team to Dayton to prove themselves and grant them a 9 seed had me floored. Heck I felt like there was a good argument to be made for having one of the Big East teams in over them, but certainly couldn’t understand a nine seed.
A team a thought deserved that 9 more? New Mexico, who the committee threw an 11 seed at and admitted they would not have made the field had it not been for them winning the Mountain West. Huh? I can understand people that claim the MW gamed the NET this season with weak non-cons to allow their conference games and wins to be weighed higher. But a top 25 NET team is a top 25 NET team and while New Mexico did not schedule the hardest in November and December, they still earned tough victories against SDSU, Nevada, Utah St, and Colorado St. It’s clear there was bias involved but the eye test has to count for something.
Lastly, I take huge issue with the 7/10 matchup in principle. I am an Atlantic 10 faithful (go URI!) so I have seen plenty of Dayton this season and while I did gush at them for periods of this year, the truth is they just have not looked great over the last month and a half. Struggling at times against lesser competition and limping into conference tournament play where they lost their first game against Duquesne. The Flyers were safe but they should not have been this safe. And on the other side, you have another MW victim with Nevada. The Wolves also lost their lone conference tournament game but they also won 10 of 11 before that which included four Quad 1 victories; two of which were on the road. Maybe the committee mixed the teams up by accident? Vegas certainly believes so because at the time of this writing the Wolf Pack are favored to win which does make my next section easier.
9 Seed or Lower Likely to Go to Second Weekend
Nevada Wolf Pack (10 Seed)
I just spoke about the Wolf Pack and how they were mistreated with the seed they were given. But it actually could be a blessing for them in the grand scheme. I just ragged on them but Dayton is going to be a tough out and Nevada will need to find a way to contain DaRon Holmes II and the three point shooting of Nate Santos and Koby Brea. But Nevada is large enough down low with Nick Davidson Tre Coleman and KJ Hymes, and really across the board for that matter to make things difficult on defense. And they are senior lead up top with Kenan Blackshear, and former Oregon St Elite Eight hero Jarod Lucas, where ball security should not become much of an issue.
Should the Wolf Pack advance they’re likely to face the Arizona Wildcats, a team I would anticipate a good amount of people will have in their Final Four. But as I mentioned earlier, the teams in this region have been inconsistent or flat out chaotic at times this year with Arizona being no exception. For as talent as their group is, the fell to Princeton in round one last year, and showed multiple lapses throughout Pac-12 conference with duds being put up against Stanford, Oregon St, and most recently USC and Oregon in two of their last three games. This Wildcat team can get hot, but they can certainly be had. Nevada has the guns to hang in here and if they bring their A game to Salt Lake City, they could very well advance to the regionals out in LA and may even represent the West in Phoenix for the Final Four.