Last Stop, the South Regional
Houston has enjoyed excellence regardless of conference but can they take the next step?
We have arrived at our last bracket region breakdown. Hopefully this gives you some type of knowledge as you fill out your bracket or prepare for the games. And if it does or maybe you just enjoy reading random college basketball rankings, check out my thoughts on the other three regions below
The One Seed: Houston Cougars (30-4)
For years fair-weather college basketball fans saw the success Kelvin Sampson and Houston built over the last ten years and said that they were pretender, and were just reaping the benefits of a weak American conference despite four straight second weekend appearances included a Final Four in 2021. But here we are, year one of Houston being in the Big 12 and they did not skip a beat as they won the regular season conference crown by two games.
I will admit I was a skeptic of the Cougs heading into this year thinking it might take a season or two in the deep Big 12 before they could establish themselves at the top. Their cupcake non-conference schedule did not do much in the way of dispelling those thoughts for me, but the numbers were there and the wins kept piling. And then they hit conference play and after losing their second and third conference game to Iowa St and TCU, his team hit another level winning 16 of 17 in the highest rated conference by Kenpom.
While they may not have had the sheer number of blowouts that UConn posted, Houston’s edge was that they moved at even a slower tempo and put down even tighter clamps on defense, with the most efficient unit in the country. There were ten times they held teams under 60 points and three times Houston kept their opponents under 50 points. Oh yeah and I forgot to mention that was just in Big 12 play with some of the best teams in the country.
The South is filled with some big named teams but this very likely could be the best Houston team of the Kelvin Sampson era and All-American Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer are the perfect guard combo to dance deep into the region and likely even into Phoenix.
Favorite Upset
(11)North Carolina St over (6) Texas Tech
North Carolina St flirted with the bubble and even the Top 25 rankings for a decent part of the season. But starting in the month of February and leading to the end of the regular season, the Wolf Pack posted a 3-7 record and played their way completely out of any at-large consideration. But whatever was said or done prior to the ACC tournament worked wonders as the team won five games in five straight days including wins over Duke, Virginia, and UNC.
This was not a bad team, rather a bubble team that was just on an unbelievable cold streak. But they’re red hot right now (and finally rested) and going up against a wounded team; a recipe I try and hunt for in my 6/11 matchups.
Texas Tech is currently with minimal choices for their forward positions as their starting Center is still working back from a February foot injury and Darrion Williams nursing a sprained ankle. With KyeRon Lindsay already away from the team, that leave Tech with Kerwin Walton (their small forward) and 6’8” freshman Eemeli Yalaho as their lone big men. That’s a problem for any team but ten times work for a team getting ready to play DJ Burns Jr.
The 6’9”, 275lb senior forward wrecked havoc on the ACC tournament posting games of 19 against Virginia and 20 against UNC in the title game and dropped 27 on Duke just a few weeks earlier. Tech is going to have their hands full trying to guard DJ Horne, but I’m definitely going to want to tune in and see what they try and throw at Burns to slow him down.
Seeding Gripes
I spend half of my East newsletter complaining but seeding issues by the committee so my comparison this region is not back but I still have my issues.
Keeping up with the theme that the Mountain West got royally screwed, the committee threw a second MW team into the First Four; Boise St. This one was even worse for me than Colorado St as Boise finished higher in the standings, has a NET of 27, showed a willingness to test themselves in the nonconference, and grabbed six Quad 1 wins. I don’t know that they deserve a seven seed but I would have at least had them switched with Texas A&M to say the least.
A&M was a team that actually needed to play their way into the field the last few weeks thanks to a string of five straight loses, so it was surprising to see them earn a nine seed thanks to their win against Kentucky. Like Michigan St, this is a team that CAN be great at times and I thought they had enough in the preseason to win the SEC. But just like Michigan St, they just had to make everything so damn hard.
9 Seed or Lower Likely to Go to Second Weekend
Texas A&M Aggies (9 Seed)
And here I go talking myself into Texas A&M making a run in the tournament. For the record I’m not picking Texas A&M to make it to the second weekend, but it would not surprise me as much as it may others.
This Aggie team is led by two star offensive players in Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor IV who gets to the line at an incredible rate. They have a strong big man rotation with Solomon Washington in charge and an experienced and respected coach in Buzz Williams. And to make matters better, they may have finally figured their lineup out but sliding Manny Obaseki into the starting spot.
Not to mention this team has been battle tested all season in the SEC but also showed their guts out in nonconference play. They play in one of the most exciting games of noncon I watched against Florida Atlantic, took out Iowa St on a neutral court and even went into Houston and gave them their best shot, coming back from down 21 om the second half before just coming up short in the final second.
Again, I do not have the guts to pick against Houston in this spot. But if there’s a team that pull off a massive one seed upset and string together a run in the tournament, this might be the team to watch from the South region.